Predictive model of persistent choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis / Modelo predictivo de coledocolitiasis persistente en pacientes con pancreatitis aguda biliar

Background: Choledocholithiasis causing acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) may migrate to the duodenum or persist in the common bile duct (CBD). We developed a model for predicting persistent choledocholithiasis (PC) in patients with ABP. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 204 patients, age ≥18 years (mean age: 73 years, 65.7% women), admitted for ABP in 2013–2018, with at least a magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), and/or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Epidemiological, analytical, imaging, and endoscopic variables were compared between patients with and without PC. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a predictive model of PC. Results: Patients underwent MRCP (n=145, 71.1), MRCP and ERCP (n=44, 21.56%), EUS and ERCP (n=1, 0.49%), or ERCP (n=14, 6.86%). PC was detected in 49 patients (24%). PC was strongly associated with CBD dilation, detected in the emergency ultrasound (p<0.001; OR=27; 95% CI: 5.8–185.5), increased blood levels of gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, detected at 72h (p=0.008; OR=3.4; 95% CI: 1.5–8.9); and biliary sludge in the gallbladder (p=0.008; OR=0.03; 95% CI: 0.001–0.3). Conclusions: The predictive model showed a validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.858 for detecting PC in patients with ABP. A nomogram was developed based on model results. Conclusions: The predictive model was highly effective in detecting PC in patients with ABP. Therefore, this model could be useful in clinical practice.(AU)

Antecedentes: La coledocolitiasis que provoca una pancreatitis aguda biliar (PAB) puede migrar al duodeno o persistir en el conducto biliar común (CBC). Desarrollamos un modelo para predecir la coledocolitiasis persistente (CP) en pacientes con PAB. Métodos: Este estudio de cohortes retrospectivo incluyó a 204 pacientes, edad ≥ 18 años (edad media: 73 años, 65,7% mujeres), ingresados por PAB entre los años 2013 y 2018, a los que se les realizó al menos una colangiopancreatografía por resonancia magnética (CPRM), una ultrasonografía endoscópica (USE) o una colangiopancreatografía retrógrada endoscópica (CPRE). Se compararon variables epidemiológicas, analíticas, de imagen y endoscópicas entre pacientes con y sin CP. Se realizaron análisis de regresión logística multivariante para desarrollar un modelo predictivo de CP. Resultados: Los pacientes se sometieron a CPRM (n=145, 71,1%), CPRM y CPRE (n=44, 21,56%), USE y CPRE (n=1, 0,49%) o CPRE (n=14, 6,86%). Se detectó CP en 49 pacientes (24%). La CP se asoció fuertemente con la dilatación del colédoco, detectada en la ecografía de urgencias (p <0,001; OR=27; IC del 95%: 5,8-185,5), aumento de los niveles sanguíneos de gamma glutamil transpeptidasa, detectados a las 72h (p=0,008; OR=3,4, IC del 95%: 1,5-8,9), y barro biliar en la vesícula (p=0,008; OR=0,03; IC del 95%: 0,001-0,3). El modelo predictivo alcanzó un área bajo la curva validada de 0,858 para la detección de CP en pacientes con PAB. Se desarrolló un nomograma basado en los resultados del modelo. Conclusiones: El modelo predictivo fue altamente efectivo en la detección de CP en pacientes con PAB. Por lo tanto, este modelo podría ser útil en la práctica clínica.(AU)

Predictive model of persistent choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Choledocholithiasis causing acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) may migrate to the duodenum or persist in the common bile duct (CBD). We developed a model for predicting persistent choledocholithiasis (PC) in patients with ABP. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 204 patients, age ≥18 years (mean age: 73 years, 65.7% women), admitted for ABP in 2013-2018, with at least a magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), and/or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Epidemiological, analytical, imaging, and endoscopic variables were compared between patients with and without PC. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a predictive model of PC. RESULTS: Patients underwent MRCP (n=145, 71.1), MRCP and ERCP (n=44, 21.56%), EUS and ERCP (n=1, 0.49%), or ERCP (n=14, 6.86%). PC was detected in 49 patients (24%). PC was strongly associated with CBD dilation, detected in the emergency ultrasound (p<0.001; OR=27; 95% CI: 5.8-185.5), increased blood levels of gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, detected at 72h (p=0.008; OR=3.4; 95% CI: 1.5-8.9); and biliary sludge in the gallbladder (p=0.008; OR=0.03; 95% CI: 0.001-0.3). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model showed a validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.858 for detecting PC in patients with ABP. A nomogram was developed based on model results. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model was highly effective in detecting PC in patients with ABP. Therefore, this model could be useful in clinical practice.